SpaceX IPO is Coming Very Soon Now

The SpaceX S-1 SEC filling is available here and as usual it is a long, very long document.

Having read and distilled carefully this document and other sources, here is our comment and analysis below:

SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) filed its S-1 registration statement with the SEC ahead of its investor road show planned for June 5, with the initial public S-1 dated May 20, 2026 and two amendments since (Amendment No. 1 on June 1 and Amendment No. 2 on June 3, 2026, under registration number 333-296070).

The company has applied to list its Class A common stock on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the symbol SPCX, reportedly planning to fix the IPO price at $135 per share, sell 555.6M shares, and raise a record $75B at a $1.75T valuation. Elon Musk holds approximately 42% of SpaceX’s equity but controls roughly 79% of its votes through super-voting shares under a dual-class structure. The business is now reported in three segments: Space, Connectivity (Starlink), and AI (SpaceXAI).

On consolidated numbers, revenue increased 15% to $4.69B in the first quarter from $4.07B a year earlier. Revenue for all of last year jumped 33% to $18.67B. The company recorded a net loss in the latest quarter of $4.28B after losing $4.94B in 2025, and total long-term debt at the end of March 2026 was $29.1B. SpaceX also disclosed holdings of 18,712 bitcoin, with a reported fair value in the roughly $1.3–$1.5B range. The losses are concentrated in the AI segment; Space and Connectivity are profitable on an EBITDA basis.

• Space activity: The S-1 reports that as of March 31, 2026, SpaceX had launched a total mass to orbit of approximately 7,400 tons with an over 99% mission success rate across the Falcon rockets. They have completed approximately 650 orbital space launches, and over 540 of those launches were completed by a flight-proven Falcon rocket. The Space segment generated revenue of $619M, loss from operations of $662M, and adjusted EBITDA loss of $351M for the three months ended March 31, 2026. In 2025, the Space segment generated revenue of $4.086B. SpaceX revealed it has spent over $15B developing its next-generation rocket, Starship, with $3B on Starship development in 2025 and $930M in the first quarter of 2026
• Starlink / Connectivity: This remains the cash engine. Service quality is enabled by the vast network of approximately 9,600 Starlink broadband and mobile satellites in Low-Earth Orbit, which accounted for approximately 75% of all active maneuverable satellites in orbit as of March 31, 2026. They expect to commence deploying the next-generation V3 satellites, designed to offer one Tbps of downlink capacity per satellite, using Starship in the second half of 2026. They expect that a single Starship launch will be capable of deploying up to 60 V3 satellites to LEO, representing a potential twenty-fold increase in Starlink downlink capacity deployed relative to a Falcon 9 launch. SpaceX said it had 10.3M Starlink subscribers as of the end of the first quarter of 2026, compared to 5.0M a year ago, across 164 countries. Average revenue per user (ARPU) fell from $99 per month in 2023 to $81 in 2025, and then to $66 in Q1 2026. The Connectivity segment generated revenue of $3.257B for the 3 months ended March 31, 2026, on income from operations of $1.188B, and adjusted EBITDA of $2.087B. For 2025, the unit reported revenue of $11.387B, income from operations of $4.423B, and adjusted EBITDA of $7.168B
• xAI, Grok, and AI infrastructure: xAI, which was founded in 2023 and acquired by SpaceX in early 2026, is now an integral pillar of a vertically integrated stack; the filing notes its infrastructure supports training and inference for Grok, which it pitches as one of the world’s most advanced frontier models. The all-stock triangular merger valued xAI at $250B and the combined entity at $1.25 trillion. The S-1 contains the first SEC-audited usage metrics for the platform, X reported 550M monthly active users as of March 2026, Grok reported 117M MAU (21.3% of the X ecosystem), and xAI posted a $6.4B operating loss on $3.2B of revenue, a 4× deterioration from FY2024’s $1.56B loss. Reality on the product side is less flattering than the rhetoric, Musk acknowledged that xAI, and the tech underlying its AI chatbot and image generator Grok, “was not built right first time around,” and needed to be “rebuilt from the foundations up.” Grok was supposed to be xAI’s answer to ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude, but has remained more of a niche player, and Grok currently ranks fourth in the AI chatbot market, behind OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Anthropic’s Claude, and Google’s Gemini. The IPO is also being used as a Grok distribution channel, Musk has made Grok subscription purchases a condition of participation in SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO, according to the New York Times citing four people with knowledge of the arrangements. Some banks have agreed to spend tens of millions of dollars per year on Grok and have begun integrating it into their internal IT systems.

On the infrastructure side, the AI segment, which includes the xAI business and is now called “SpaceXAI,” posted revenue of $818M, a loss from operations of $2.469B, and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $609M in Q1 2026. SpaceX spent approximately $13B on data center capital expenditures in 2025, plus another $7.5B in Q1 2026 alone, more capex now goes to AI than to rockets. Two large compute leases anchor the AI business, both running on Grok-built infrastructure that has been re-leased to competitors. With Anthropic, the Colossus 1 data centre secured a deal with Anthropic worth $1.25B per month through May 2029. The facility houses 220k Nvidia GPUs across 300MW of power and was built in 120 days. The contract is worth approximately $40B over its life. However, either party can terminate with 90 days’ notice; the Anthropic deal, disclosed in SpaceX’s S-1 filing with the SEC, gives Anthropic exclusive access to Colossus 1, the Memphis, Tennessee data center xAI originally built to train its Grok models. With Google, disclosed in Amendment No. 2, “On June 5, 2026, we entered into a Cloud Service Agreement with Google with respect to access to compute capacity. The customer has agreed to pay us $920M per month from October 2026 through June 2029, with capacity ramping up through September at a reduced fee. The compute capacity provided includes approximately 110k Nvidia GPUs, CPUs, memory, and other related components”, roughly $30B over its term. xAI built more than $30B worth of GPU infrastructure to power Grok. Grok’s usage dropped as competitors like Claude and Gemini gained ground. The hardware sat idle. And rather than carry that idle infrastructure as pure cost, SpaceX rented it to two of the companies most directly competing with Grok in the market. The filing also flags a option to purchase venture-backed AI coding assistant Cursor for $60B in an all-stock transaction, with a $10B breakup fee.

On the Nvidia relationship side, Nvidia appears twice in the SpaceX story, as critical supplier and as shareholder. On the supply side, the Anthropic and Google leases combined commit SpaceX to operate well over 330k Nvidia GPUs at Colossus-class facilities, and the S-1 acknowledges the dependence on Nvidia for AI silicon. On the cap-table side, post-merger, Nvidia, Cisco, Qatar Investment Authority, and Abu Dhabi’s MGX joined the register via their xAI positions, so Jensen Huang’s company is both a strategic supplier and an indirect equity holder following the xAI rollup.

Looking forward, the filing pitches an orbital compute thesis, SpaceX’s reusable rockets, scaled satellite manufacturing, and operational expertise can enable the cost-effective and rapid deployment of massive AI compute satellite constellations, with satellites in Sun-synchronous orbit able to handle energy-intensive AI workloads, such as inference demand, at far greater scale and efficiency than terrestrial alternatives, with Starlink providing low-latency, global connectivity linking these orbital AI systems to people around the world and delivering real-time intelligence. They expect to begin deploying the orbital AI compute satellites as early as 2028. Anthropic has also “expressed interest” in working with SpaceX to develop multiple GWs of capacity in space.