Nvidia to Launch Blackwell Ultra and B200A in 2025

Published on August 8, 2024, this market report was written by TrendForce Corp.

NVIDIA to Launch Blackwell Ultra and B200A in 2025
Increasing HBM3e 12hi Consumption to 40%

Latest findings on HBM report that the HBM capacity per single chip is increasing significantly with the iteration of AI chips. Currently, NVIDIA is the largest buyer in the HBM market, and it is anticipated that NVIDIA’s procurement share in the HBM market will exceed 70% with the launch of products like Blackwell Ultra and B200A in 2025.

TrendForce also noted that the first-gen H100 chip in NVIDIA’s Hopper series was equipped with 80GB of HBM, whereas the H200 – to be released in 2024 – will boast a capacity of 144GB. The combined growth of AI chips and single-chip capacity will substantially increase overall HBM consumption. It is estimated that the annual growth rate for 2024 will surpass 200%, and HBM consumption is expected to double again in 2025.

NVIDIA plans to offer a scaled-down version of the B200A to OEM customers, which utilizes four HBM3e 12hi stacks – half the number used in other B-series chips. Despite the smaller HBM capacity of the B200A, the overall consumption of HBM will not be affected, as the diversification of chip options will encourage procurement by small and medium-sized customers.

NVIDIA’s HBM3e consumption expected to cross 85%
TrendForce reports that although SK hynix and Micron only began mass production of HBM3e in 2Q24, the shipment of NVIDIA’s H200 will drive the company’s HBM3e consumption share to over 60% for 2024. In 2025, the comprehensive adoption of HBM3e on the Blackwell platform, the increase in product layers, and the rise in single-chip HBM capacity will further boost NVIDIA’s HBM3e consumption to over 85%.

The market’s focus in 2H24 will be on HBM3e 12hi. The Blackwell Ultra, slated for release in 2025, will utilize 8 HBM3e 12hi stacks. The GB200 might also see an upgrade alongside the planned B200A. As a result, it is estimated that the proportion of 12hi products in HBM3e will rise to 40% in 2025, with a potential for further increase.

The technological difficulty at the HBM3e 12hi stage is also rising, making the validation process more critical. The sequence of completed validations may influence the order distribution. Currently, all 3 major HBM suppliers are undergoing product validation, with Samsung being particularly proactive in increasing market share. However, the production capacity for this year remains largely fixed and primarily focused on HBM3e 8hi, with significant growth in HBM3e 12hi output expected mainly in 2025.