Storage Top 10 “Non-Predictions” for 2024

This article was written by Mike Harding, manager for Microsoft and industry solutions, HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise Development LP) Storage.

What’s NOT going to happen?
Data storage top 10 “non-predictions” for 2024

We’re taking a different spin on the annual predictions blog. While the future holds so much promise, not everything will happen just yet. With that in mind, the Microsoft Hybrid Cloud Solution team is sharing our list of 10 exciting things we don’t think will happen in the coming year for storage and related technologies.

Our team has been providing annual predictions for storage and related technology space for at least the last couple of years. We’re noticing that “annual predictions” are becoming almost too common – numerous analysts and publications racing to get theirs out first. So, this year, the Hybrid Cloud Solutions team here at HPE offers you our “non-predictions of 2024.” It’s the top 10 things that won’t happen in storage and related technology in 2024.

1 All data will be in the cloud  – All things cloud have been the rage for the past 20 years. Microsoft Azure continues to be on a tear with consistent double-digit growth, the cloud computing market is expected to surpass $1 trillion by 2027 (per Precedence Research), and interest over time in “cloud” as a search term per Google has never been higher. Yet despite all this, analysts still put the amount of data stored in the cloud at just ‘60%. That’s approaching an astounding 100ZB of capacity, but the cloud is not expected to vacuum up all our data just yet, due to ongoing concerns about data security, cyberattacks, or just lack of trust because of recurring ‘outages causing data disruption and data loss in the cloud.

2 Global adoption of cryptocurrency – Despite the jails becoming overcrowded with fallen cryptocurrency execs, cryptocurrencies are gaining surprising popularity. The recent SIBOS event that brought together 9,000 of the world’s leading bankers and Fintech execs in Toronto, Canada, had an agenda full of sessions on cryptocurrency, CBDCs, tokenization, blockchain and related topics. There’s a big but quiet push on by the financial establishment to digitize all payments and transactions to drive down costs while increasing the banker’s take of growing mobile commerce and digitized asset transactions. Despite this trend, the global transition from traditional currencies to decentralized cryptocurrencies won’t happen in 2024 due to regulatory uncertainties, scalability issues, and public acceptance.

3 AI job market cools off – Actually, we expect the market for AI and ML jobs to stay red hot through 2024. Recall the recent OpenAI drama, where Microsoft, Salesforce and others were offering up jobs to any of the disgruntled 700 employees who wanted to resign. Turned out, it was not to be the recruiting shortcut they had hoped. As of this writing, Microsoft is still showing almost 900 openings for AI and ML. Google seeks 246. Apple, 128.

4 Tech M&A takes a breather – Or not. Now that the VMware-Broadcom deal has officially closed, it sets the all-time tech merger deal bar at a new Olympian level of $69 billion. You know someone is already planning to top it. With Apple, Microsoft, and Google each with over $100 billion in cash, and the AI land rush in full charge, we can only expect more deals to happen. Whether for strategic tech, scarce expertise, or scale, you shouldn’t have to wait long for the next big tech deal to go down in 2024.

5 Complete elimination of cyber threats – Let’s say Palo Alto networks, ZScaler and McAfee all team up on some new-fangled, real-time, zero-trust, AI-enabled, cloud-based security product. And despite it being magically rolled out instantaneously, with every user happily succumbing to whatever digital indignity it entails (“What, I can’t listen to NPR on my laptop?”), it would still be naïve to expect a world completely free of cyber threats and attacks, certainly anytime in 2024. The evolving nature of cyber threats, the craftiness of the threat actors, and the depth of resources of the state-sponsored agents, will keep the cybersecurity arms race going for quite some time.

6 A Quantum computer on every desktop – Quantum computing is advancing steadily with much being written on the fervent work being done. There have now been at least a couple teams, at Google and in China, that have claimed narrow cases of “quantum advantage” – where a quantum computer has surpassed what a classic computer can accomplish. But the technology is not anticipated to become a common feature in everyday consumer devices by 2024 due to cost, complexity, and ongoing technical challenges, with the fear of a long “quantum winter” only a misstep away.

7 Personal flying car traffic jams – Despite the fact that I just stumbled on an article entitled “3 Flying Cars Stocks You’ll Regret Not Buying Soon” we’re probably still a ways from flying car prevalence. There are ongoing developments in autonomous vehicles and aerial transportation, and maybe even some fast money to be made to rival bitcoin and meme stocks. But the widespread adoption of personal flying cars for everyday use is unlikely by 2024 due to regulatory challenges, safety concerns, and infrastructure limitations.

8 Colonization of Mars –  I can’t think of a cooler fashion statement than an “Occupy Mars” t-shirt for the space-nerd on your holiday shopping list, but we still don’t expect to see a sustainable human presence on Mars in 2024. Of course, anything is possible, even the Rockies could win the World Series next season, but significant technical, logistical, and biological challenges will prevent a Mars colony from being anything more than a T-shirt slogan any time soon.

9 Broad adoption of Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) – There are certainly very specialized and valuable use cases for BCI’s such as for victims of paralysis. And the idea that a BCI can detect a person’s intent to interact with something in their environment, and then translate the related brain signals into commands sent to an output device is almost magical. But the average person could probably get by pretty well for now with an intelligent wearable device like the AI Pin or even a good smartwatch. While BCIs are making progress, widespread adoption for daily use by the general public is not expected to happen in 2024.

10 Autonomous commercial flights – My son has an interest in being a pilot and I keep telling him, “Look at what’s happening with drones. Planes are not going to need human pilots for much longer. What about a nice steady job in a hedge fund?” And maybe not surprisingly, on the heels of the Actors and Writers strikes against the use of AI, the nation’s piilots are readying for a similar battle. However, fully autonomous commercial flights, without human pilots on board, are still expected to be a ways away, certainly well beyond the 2024 time frame due to current regulatory hurdles, safety concerns, and public acceptance.