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4Q23 Mobile DRAM and NAND Flash Contract Prices Forecast to Rise 13% to 18% Q/Q

Upward trend may continue into 1Q24.

This market report, published on October 26, 2023, was written by Mia Huang and Sean Linn, analysts at TrendForce Corp.

4FQ23 contract prices for mobile DRAM are poised to see an increased quarterly rise of 13-18%.

But that’s not all – NAND flash is also joining the party, with contract prices of eMMC and UFS expected to climb by approximately 10–15% in the same quarter.

This quarter is set to star mobile DRAM, traditionally the underperformer in profit margins compared to its DRAM counterparts, as it takes the lead in this round of price increases.

This expanded quarterly increase can be attributed to several factors. On the supply side, Samsung’s significant production cut and Micron’s rolling out a price hike of more than 20% continue to lay the foundation for industry-wide confidence in price increases.

As for demand, the latter half of 2023 saw mobile DRAM and NAND flash (eMMC, UFS) demand not just buoyed by the usual suspects – the traditional peak season – but also boosted by catalysts such as the Huawei Mate 60 series. This has prompted other Chinese smartphone brands to expand their production targets. The surge in demand within a short period has become one of the reasons pushing 4Q23 contract prices upward.

Overall, memory prices are expected to continue trending upward in 1Q24. However, the traditional off-season lull and reduced workdays courtesy of the Lunar New Year might cool the fervor for price increases slightly.

Nonetheless, current projections still anticipate continued growth in 1Q24 contract prices for mobile DRAM and NAND flash (eMMC, UFS) next year. The rate of increase will depend on whether suppliers maintain a conservative production strategy and whether there is enough consumer demand to bolster the market.