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Tsunami on WW HDD Market

Units shipped expected to decrease 40-42% Y/Y

Here is an abstract of a report, SDAS: HDD Information Service, Preliminary CQ4 ’22 Quarterly Update, dated January 7, 2023, by Trendfocus, Inc.

Preliminary 4CQ22 Results:
HDD Shipments Slip to 36 Million on Falling Cloud Demand

3.5″/2.5″ Enterprise HDDs: Sharp cuts in nearline HDD (3.5″ enterprise) shipments to some large cloud companies in CQ4 combined with ongoing inventory corrections in other markets to cut nearline shipments to between 10 million and 11 million units in CQ4 ’22 – the drop was responsible for most of the total HDD TAM decline in the quarter. 2.5″ performance enterprise HDD shipments appeared to lift slightly to around 1.6 million units, indicating stabilization of OEM demand in a weak market environment. As a result, estimated total enterprise HDD shipments of between 11.5 million and 12.5 million units fell around 25% Q/Q.

3.5″ Desktop/CE HDDs: Total 3.5″ desktop/CE HDD shipments (including 3.5″ external and branded surveillance HDDs) dipped in the mid-single digit percentage range to around 12.5 million units. The slight sequential decline points to no significant recovery of surveillance HDD demand which has been hampered throughout the year by Covid lockdowns in China and reduced spending due to economic slowing.

2.5″ Mobile/CE HDDs: 2.5″ mobile/CE HDD rebounded by around 15% Q/Q to approximately 11.3 million units as higher seasonal retail external HDD demand lifted shipments of this drive category. Battered by multiple quarters of reduced 2.5″ mobile/CE shipments from weak consumer spending and the virtual end of HDDs in mobile PCs, the rise in CQ4 was a welcome sign of stabilization for 2.5″ client HDD shipments which helped to offset Q/Q unit reductions in other HDD segments.

4CQ22 WW HDD shipments

Vendor HDDs in million Q/Q change Y/Y change
Market share
Seagate 15.10 – 15.60 -3.9% -0.7%
-43.7% -41.7% 42.9 – 42.9%
Toshiba 7.80 – 8.0 -2.6% -0.1%
-39.3% -37.7% 22.2% – 22.0%
WDC 12.30 – 12.80 -16.2% -12.7% -43.0% -40.7% 34.9% – 35.2%
TOTAL 35.20 – 36.40
 -8.3% – 5.2%
-42.5 -40.5%