History (1988): 33 Manufacturers of Optical Disk Drives and 80 Models

Despite years of over enthusiastic publicity, WW shipments of optical disk drives for computer applications were less than 100,000 units in 1987, with CD-ROMs providing 75% of the total, according to a report released 1988 by analyst company Disk/Trend on optical disk drives.

However, the report ($1,140) cites promising product developments in 1988 which are expected to lead to 1991 WW shipments of 1.4 million drives, valued at almost $1.5 billion.

1987’s $170.9 million in WW optical disk drive revenue is expected to rise 72% to $293.8 million in 1988, with 5.25-inch drives providing the fastest growth rate in both revenues and unit shipments.

CD-ROMs currently lead in unit shipments with 106,900 drives estimated for 1988, but read/write drives with less than 1GB capacity are expected to provide 58% of the industry’s unit shipments in 1991.

Shipments of erasable drives are just getting started in 1988, but the forecasted quantity for 1989 will rival shipments of write-once drives. By 1991, 80% of R/W drives with less than 1GB capacity are expected to be erasable types. The early market for erasable optical drives will be pioneered with magneto-optical technology, but cost considerations may lead to future openings for phase change and dye polymer drives.

Applications for optical drives are currently concentrated in image processing and storage systems. Inroads into the archival and save/restore markets now held by tape drives will depend on achieving lower costs, and displacement of magnetic rigid disk drives will also have to wait for better performance.

Costs and performance improvements are expected, but will occur gradually over a span of many years.

CD-ROM sales have entered a pattern on steady growth, now that standards are widely accepted and half-height drives are available. CD-ROM applications are expected to be limited to specialized databases and other material for selected audiences, with 1991 unit shipments forecasted at less than 600,000 drives.

There were 21 manufacturers of optical disk drives in 1986, growing to 33 in 1988, with 80 specific drive models now available. 60% of the current producers are Japanese companies, with US. and European firms making up the balance.

Optical disk drives: WW shipments by all manufacturers

This article is an abstract of news published on the former paper version of Computer Data Storage Newsletter on issue ≠7, volume ≠1, published on August 1988.