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Trendfocus Forecasts 1CQ17 HDD to Be Approximately 99 Million Units

Last 2-3 weeks of March will see manufacturing slow.

This Executive Brief was posted by Trendfocus, Inc.:

Various Data Points from Travel in China, Taiwan, and Japan

The Trendfocus team is venturing through Asia for a couple of weeks and will be sharing interesting and salient data points with you, in rapid-fire fashion.

CQ1 ’17 HDD Shipments vs. production: Trendfocus forecasts CQ1 ’17 HDD to be approximately 99 million, and recent checks lend confidence to that number.

Cumulative production is still around 109 million, but we suspect that the last 2-3 weeks of March will see HDD manufacturing slow so as to avoid significant finished goods inventory buildup.

SMR HDDs gathering steam: Seagate’s resolute effort on the 1TB/disk 2.5″ SMR platform is paying dividends. Not only is it ramping steeply at PC OEMs, but at least one game console maker will be using it in 2017. With Western Digital and Toshiba approximately one to two quarters behind the leader, Seagate stands to benefit from its leadership through much of the year.

Foxconn to bid for Toshiba memory business? Foxconn publicly stated intentions to bid on Toshiba’s memory business recently, adding drama to an already turbulent scenario. The company and its network have the money to buy the entire memory business from Toshiba, and based on its relatively smooth acquisition of the Sharp brand is probably viewed positively by Japanese regulators.

PC outlook improving: Well not really. Current data indicate that CQ1 ’17 notebook production will rise year to year, but consensus among Taiwan ODM notebook makers is that the segment will decline in low single digits in 2017.

Smartphone unit outlook flattish, but NAND consumption in phones will continue to rise:  China smartphone makers are cutting 2017 output targets, but Huawei, Vivo, and Opo will still produce 300+ million this year. The key is NAND usage, as these suppliers seek competitive designs to Apple’s forthcoming iPhone 8. With storage now rising to as much as 256GB, NAND supply will continue to be tight through most, if not all of 2017.

Acer bullish on Chromebook, Asus wants to push as well: As these PC suppliers lose share and influence they are searching for niches to exploit. We don’t see what the attraction is to a small, lower margin market, but you never know …

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