Trendfocus Previews 112 Million to 114 Million HDDs Shipped in 4Q16

Vs. 114 million former quarter, with Seagate down 14% to 15% Y/Y
This is a Press Release edited by on 2017.01.11

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In its SDAS: HDD Information Service, Preliminary CQ4 '16 Quarterly Update published on January 9, 2017, analyst company Trendfocus, Inc. wrote:

Preliminary CQ4 '16 Results: HDD Shipments of 112-114 Million Units
With strong PC/retail demand offsetting seasonal gaming declines

3.5-Inch Desktop/CE HDDs
Total desktop/CE HDD shipments (including 3.5-inch external HDDs) shipments improved with typical end-of-year desktop PC and external HDD shipment increases. As a result, total desktop/CE HDDs rose around two million units from the prior quarter to end at 38 million HDDs shipped.

2.5-Inch Mobile/CE HDDs
Slight improvements in consumer PC demand, slowing of SSD attach rate growth due to higher SSD pricing, and seasonally higher 2.5-inch external HDD shipments combined to nearly offset the sharp seasonal decline of gaming HDD sales in CQ4 '16. As a result, total 2.5-inch mobile/CE HDD shipments slipped sequentially by around two to three million units to a range of 57 million to 58 million units.

3.5-Inch/2.5-Inch Enterprise HDDs
After stabilizing in recent quarters, traditional performance enterprise HDDs rose by approximately 500,000 units Q-Q, signaling typical seasonality, even as the total volumes were down from historical norms. Nearline HDDs softened from record highs in the previous quarters, weighed slightly by the shift to higher capacity models - exabytes shipped rose as a result. Total enterprise HDD shipments ranged from around 17 to nearly 18 million, essentially holding flat Q/Q.

4CQ16 preliminary WW HDD shipments

Manufacturer HDDs shipped in million Q/Q growth Y/Y growth Market share
Seagate  39.00 - 39.50 0.1% / 1.4%  -15.1% / -14.0%  34.8% - 34.8%
Toshiba  26.00 - 26.50 -3.9% / -2.1% 35.9% / 38.5%  23.2% - 23.3%
WDC 47.00 - 47.50  -1.1 / 0.0%  -5.4% / -4.4%  42.0% - 41.9%
TOTAL 112.00 - 113.50  -1.4% / 0.0%  -2.4% / -1.1%  100% - 100%

Final shipments to be published in Trendfocus's CQ4'16 Quarterly Update and Executive Summary may change measurably.

Our Comments

With these latest prevision, there will be between 424.64 million and 426.14 million HDDs shipped in 2016 compared to 468.7 million in 2015 and the lowest figure since ten years.