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SSDs to Be One-Third of WW PC Storage Shipments by 2017 – IHS iSuppli

48% CAGR for SSDs, -3% for HDDs

Global shipments of SSD in PCs are set to rise by a factor of seven by 2017, allowing them to claim more than one-third of the market for PC storage solutions by that time, according to an IHS iSuppli Storage Market Tracker Report from information and analytics provider IHS Inc.

SSD shipments in PCs will rise to 227 million units in 2017, up more
than 600% from 31 million in 2012. Meanwhile, shipments of PC HDDs will
decline to 410 million in 2017, down 14% from 475 million in 2012.

The divergent outlook for the two products will allow SSDs to climb
and claim 36% of the PC storage market in 2017, up from just 6% in 2012.
At the same time, HDDs will see their long-term dominance in PCs erode,
with their share falling to 64% in 2017, down from a commanding 94% in

The SSD space includes the cache SSD segment where NAND flash is used
alongside a HDD drive, as well as a separate segment in which NAND flash
is embedded on top of an HDD in an integrated, hybrid form factor.

"For SSDs, the major factors driving growth this year will be
Ultrabooks and other ultrathin notebook PCs, especially as Intel’s
upcoming Haswell processors bring about a robust combination of
performance and efficiency for the superthin computers
," said Fang Zhang, analyst for storage systems at IHS. "In
the coming years, ultrabooks and ultrathins – combined with appealing
touch-screen displays and convertible form factors-are likely to become
more compelling as the machines attempt to lure consumers away from
smartphones and tablets, boosting demand for SSDs used in these systems.
Meanwhile, SSDs will become more attractive to PC makers and buyers
alike as costs decline for the NAND flash memory at the heart of the
storage devices

WW Shipment Forecast
          for HDDs and SSDs in PCs
                  (millions of units)

   HDD Y/Y Growth
Y/Y Growth
 475.4        NA   31.1         NA
2013  436.9       -8%   69.0       122%
2014  434.5       -1%  120.2        74%
2015  416.7       -5%  153.8        28%
2016  409.9       -2%  196.7        28%
2017  409.9        0%  227.1        15%

   (Source: IHS Inc., April 2013)

Hard times for HDDs
PC HDD shipments in 2013 are forecast to decline to 436.9 million
units, down 8% from 475.4 million last year. In comparison, SSD
shipments in PCs will jump to 68.9 million units, up a resounding 122%
from 31.1 million.
From 2012 to 2017, the CAGR for PC HDD shipments
will be in negative territory at -2.9%, while that for PC SSDs comes out
to an enviable 48.0%.

"The HDD industry is suffering the multi-layered effects of a
depressed market, resulting from a weak global economy, upgrades not
being made for desktop and notebook PCs alike as replacement cycles get
extended, and cannibalization by flashier devices like mobile handsets
and tablets
," Zhang observed.

PC HDD revenue is expected to decline to $26.4 billion in 2013, down
from last year’s record of $30.6 billion that resulted mainly from
higher ASPs after the devastating floods in Thailand.

State of euphoria for SSDs
Meanwhile the SSD space has been extremely competitive, closing out last
year on record-high revenue and with the vigorous enterprise SSD
segment enjoying dramatic expansion. The fourth quarter last year was a
particularly strong period for computer-related SSDs with shipments of
12 million units, boosting year-end revenue to $6.8 billion. By 2017, PC SSD industry revenue of $22.6 billion will come close to PC HDD revenue of $23.5 billion.

Silver linings
Despite the rapid adoption of SSDs, HDD drives will continue to lead the
overall storage market because of their cost advantage on higher
densities and $/GB pricing. HDD shipments also will gradually pick up in
the second half this year as Windows 8 and ultrabooks gain traction
among consumers, after failing to perform as expected upon launch last

In the enterprise HDD segment, competition is set to heat up as
archrivals WD and Seagate Technology contend for leadership, and WD is
expected to launch a 5TB HDD sporting the new helium technology for
higher disk capacity and lower power consumption. Other new HDD
technologies are on the horizon as well, including nearline and hybrid
HDD drives.

HDDs also will continue to play a major role in cloud storage,
remaining the final destination for the majority of digital content.

ODDs are DOA
While HDDs retain dominance despite declining shipments and SSDs
maintain impressive growth momentum, a third segment of the storage
industry is mired in poor results and deteriorating prospects.

Optical disk drives (ODD), used for playing CDs and DVDs in PCs, continue to worsen on both shipment and revenue terms. ODD
shipments this year will amount to 262.6 million units, down from 287.4
million in 2012; while revenue will slip to $7.4 billion from $8.6
billion. By 2017, ODD shipments will shrink a further 100,000 units
compared to 2012 levels, and revenue will reduce by half.