Preliminary 1Q13 HDD Results – Trendfocus

Analyst company Trendfocus, Inc. has published its preliminary 1Q13 HDD results.

135 Million HDDs Shipped as Nearly Flat
Sequential TAM Indicates Market May Have Reached Bottom

Despite weak notebook PC demand, mobile HDD sales top early projections.

3.5″ Desktop/CE HDDs
Desktop/CE HDD shipments fell slightly to 52 million HDDs in CQ1 ’13. The decline was very modest, dropping around 1 million units from the prior quarter reflecting only modest seasonal softening. Desktop HDD ASPs estimates posted minimal declines for the quarter, dropping approximately 4% to $49 per unit (this price may be adjusted when shipment mix is finalized in our Quarterly Update). The pricing environment extended to other HDD segments as well, reflecting a consolidated industry’s ability to manage supply in a weak demand environment.

2.5″ Mobile/CE HDDs
Very weak PC ODM builds during the quarter triggered fear that the 2.5″ mobile/CE HDD segment would be the primary driver to force the industry to slip beneath original total TAM forecasts of 132 million in CQ1 ’13. Fortunately, shipments of this form factor held onto flat sequential unit volumes, indicating that mobile PC demand for HDDs has hit a bottom at this time and may rebound slightly moving into the second half of the year. However, with Windows 8 not being able to stimulate any measurable PC refresh cycle, 2.5″ mobile HDD demand will likely remain muted through CQ2. ASPs for the quarter also dipped only modestly from the prior quarter, falling to $50 (this price may be adjusted when shipment mix is finalized in our Quarterly Update).

3.5″/2.5″ Enterprise HDDs
Traditional performance enterprise shipments fell slightly during the quarter, reflecting fairly conventional seasonal trends. Nearline, or capacity enterprise, HDDs continued to drive upward with demand from cloud datacenter (also referred to as webscale or hyperscale) customers increasing storage deployment modestly during the first calendar quarter of 2013. As a result, total enterprise HDD shipments shed less than 1 million units from the prior quarter, dipping just below 15 million HDDs. Based on a similar capacity and rpm mix as last quarter, enterprise HDD ASPs fell a few percent to $150-$155 range in CQ1.

Company Highlights

Seagate
Preliminary shipment estimate: approximately 57 million (down approximately 1 million Q-Q)

• 3.5″ desktop/CE shipments were off modestly, shedding 1 million units to 28 million HDDs.
• Mobile/CE HDD held at 23 million in CQ1.
• Enterprise HDDs remained at 7 million units for the second straight quarter.

Toshiba
Preliminary shipment estimate: 20 million (up 10% Q-Q)

• 3.5″ desktop shipments grew modestly to approximately 3 million units.
• Mobile/CE shipments were up approximately 1 to 16 million units.
• Enterprise volumes (mission critical and business critical) were consistent at just above 1 million.

Western Digital
Preliminary shipment estimate: approximately 58 million (down slightly Q-Q)

• Desktop/CE unit sales declined by 1 million HDDs to 22 million units.
• 2.5″ mobile/CE HDD shipments were nearly identical to the prior quarter at 30 million units.
• Enterprise demand remained flat at approximately 6.5 million for the quarter.

The above figures are estimates and are intended for preliminary results guidance only.