136 Million HDDs Shipped in 4Q12 for Trendfocus

TRENDFOCUS, Inc., the best source on the worldwide hard disk drive market, published its preliminary results for CQ4 2012.

Retail/external HDD sales were solid in CQ4, but 2.5" shipments fell sharply.

3.5" Desktop/CE HDDs
Desktop/CE HDD shipments were up to around 55 million for the quarter. Both 3.5" retail HDD and desktop PC HDD sales fared better in CQ4. Going forward, desktop PC HDD demand should trend softly downward, as the movement to mobile PCs continues to take over. Even 3.5" CE HDD sales are projected to be flattish to down slightly as xVRs and retail applications transition to 2.5" form factor.

2.5" Mobile/CE HDDs
Notebook PC OEMs continued to draw down HDD inventory in CQ4, and 2.5" mobile/CE HDD unit shipments fell to 67 million, down from 75 million. Windows 8 had minimal impact on spurring new notebook PC sales. Ultrabook PC sales continue to disappoint, but it is inspiring a whole new line up of thin and light notebooks, which should become the prevailing form factor within a year or two. Notebook PC sales should remain flattish until the 2H, when back-to-school and Christmas sales should spur slight improvement in market conditions – although much more muted than past years.

3.5"/2.5" Enterprise HDDs
Enterprise HDD shipments (mission critical and business critical) shipments rebounded slightly in CQ4, as unit shipments topped 14 million. Inventory accumulated during the first six months of 2012 was mostly worked off exiting the year; however, soft market conditions will temper demand through the first half of 2013. Traditional enterprise HDD shipments recovered modestly to top 7 million for the quarter. Business critical (nearline) HDD shipments fared better on a percentage basis and unit shipments improved to nearly 7 million for the quarter.

Company Highlights

Seagate – Preliminary shipment estimate:
approximately 58 million (flat Q/Q)

• 3.5" desktop/CE shipments were up to around 29 million.
• Mobile/CE HDD shipments eased to below 23 million in CQ4.
• Enterprise HDD volumes improved to over 6.5 million for the quarter.

Toshiba – Preliminary shipment estimate:
18 million (down 1 million Q/Q)

• 3.5", 1TB/platter program (transferred from HGST) shipments grew to over 10%.
• Mobile/CE shipments declined for a second consecutive quarter to below 15 million.
• Enterprise volumes (mission critical and business critical) were flat at just above 1 million.

Western Digital – Preliminary shipment estimate:
60 million (down 3% Q/Q)

• Desktop/CE unit sales rebounded to over 24 million, up from 21 million in the prior quarter.
• 2.5" mobile volumes dropped 10% to approximately 29 million, down from 32 million in CQ3.
• Enterprise demand stabilized, and unit shipments improved to approximately 6.5 million for the quarter.