DVR/PVR Sales to Quadruple Over Next Five Years

The long-anticipated DVR/PVR sales boom is finally happening. Equipment prices have fallen rapidly, so much so that many platforms feel comfortable about offering subsidized or even free boxes. Operators want their subscribers to take DVRs as they register very highly in consumer satisfaction indexes and thus help to ensure loyalty.

DVR competition between operators is intensifying, according to a new report from Informa Telecoms & Media. Who can offer the largest capacity, with HD compatibility and push VOD services too? Most US platforms now provide HD DVRs (with SD recording capability) as standard.

Simon Murray, author of the report, stated: "DVR take-up works best where there is intense digital TV competition. Platforms will not want to be left behind if a competitor is attracting new subscribers through DVR promotions."

By end-2008, Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts 56.1 million installed DVRs around the world. The Global DVR Forecasts report states that this represents 5% of TV households and 18% of digital TV homes. The forecasts claim 20 million added DVR homes in 2008, and 25 million more in 2009.

Informa Telecoms and Media predicts 208 million DVR households by 2013. The top five countries will account for two-thirds of this total.

 
DVR growth by region (million)

  (Source: Informa Telecoms & Media)

North America will contribute three-quarters of the 2008 total, down from 81% in 2007. Its share will continue to fall, reaching 48% by 2013. However, its 99.4 million DVR homes by 2013 will be more than double the 2008 figure.

Western Europe will record impressive growth, up from 8.6 million at end-2008 to 48.2 million in 2013. The UK will remain the top nation in the region, with 13.2 million DVR homes by 2013. It will be followed by France (7.9 million), Italy (6.8 million) and Germany (6.3 million).

Growth in the Asia Pacific region will be even more impressive than Western Europe, rising from 3.1 million at end-2008 to 45.1 million in 2013. It is likely to overtake Western Europe in 2014.

By 2013, Japan will have 13.8 million DVR homes ˆ ranking it second in the world. Other major Asian contributors include China (11.9 million), Korea (6.5 million) and India (4.3 million).

 
DVR homes as a % of TV households

 
(Source: Informa Telecoms & Media)

Despite a fast-growing installed base, DVR penetration is only expected to reach 5% of TV households by end-2008, meaning that it still has some way to go to reach mass market adoption. It is already at this point in North America, with a third of homes having a DVR.

Global penetration is forecast to rise to 17% by 2013, with North America reaching three-quarters of TV households. Western Europe will remain second-placed, though it will be far behind at 28%.

However, penetration will vary considerably within Western Europe from highs of 60% in Ireland and 50% in the UK to lows of 16% in Germany and 20% in Austria.

The Asia Pacific region, containing the world’s most populous countries, will only record 7% DVR penetration by 2013. Despite falling equipment prices, DVRs are just too expensive for many households in the region. Furthermore, the absence of significant digital TV competition in many of the region‚s countries means that DVRs will remain expensive for consumers.

Highest penetration in Asia Pacific will be in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore and Korea, at about a third of TV households. However, penetration will be under 5% in Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, China and India.

Traditionally, DTH platforms have pushed DVRs the hardest, as they feared the loss of subscribers to cable and IPTV services which offer VOD and SVOD services. However, cable will overtake DTH as the top DVR platform by end-2008, recording 26.3 million homes against DTH‚s 24.9 million. The remaining contributions will come from DTT (3.0 million) and IPTV (2.0 million).

By 2013, cable will be the largest DVR platform by a long way, bringing in nearly half the 208 million total. DTH will generate a respectable 62.3 million, or 30% of the total. DTT (23.6 million) and IPTV (19.7 million) will experience considerable growth but will still be someway behind the other platforms.

Digital cable is becoming the top DVR platform mainly because there are more digital cable homes than any other platform. However, nearly half the world‚s DTH households will have a DVR by 2013, compared with just over a third for digital cable and IPTV.

Penetration will be lower in DTT homes – 21% – as these homes are assumed to be less interested in TV services, especially sourcing and paying for extra equipment.

Global DVR Forecasts is published by Informa Telecoms & Media, which produces several media business research publications, including Television Business International, New Media Markets, Converging Media and TV International.