3Q14 HDD Shipments Looking Strong – Trendfocus

In an Executive Brief: CQ3 HDD Shipments Looking Strong, Trendfocus, Inc. forecasts 143 million HDD shipments for CQ3.

The analyst firm wrote: “Our analysis on the CQ3 TAM suggested that gaming HDD demand might be lighter due to high CQ2 shipments (filling the pipeline for late-year console sales), although we did factor improvements in both mobile 2.5″ and nearline/capacity-optimized enterprise. The current trajectory for CQ3 is now 1% – 2% higher (145-147 million units), as demand from the game console sector continues to be solid, PC demand is seasonally on target, and nearline is slowly picking up.”

What about CQ4?
Trendfocus still asserts that gaming demand will slacken and that the PC business, while showing signs of stability, typically fades late in the year.   

It added: “Given the changes in typical seasonal patterns and the pleasantly surprising strength in PC sales, we may end up with a minor upward adjustment in our CQ4 expectations. Regardless, the HDD industry will break a years-long streak of TAM decline this year, as unit output could exceed 560 million.”

HDD companies intensify focus on cloud, hyperscale, and enterprise opportunities
HGST, WDC, and Seagate all announced significant expansion of efforts to address the diverse and growing cloud, hyperscale, and enterprise segment (Toshiba is curiously quiet at the moment). All announced new, higher-capacity units, but the emphasis continues to shift beyond just HDDs – value-added solutions are focal points for future revenue growth.

Seagate ships 10 million solid state hybrid drive units to date
As the most experienced and committed vendor of solid state hybrid drives, Seagate announced that it has surpassed 10 million units shipped. Trendfocus maintains that the potential for solid state hybrid drive technology, across both PC segments and certain enterprise categories, is substantial. However, the lack of multi-vendor environment (with common form, fit, function and price between suppliers) and a price premium are hindering widespread customer adoption. If these challenges are overcome, solid state hybrid drives could have the potential to see a faster growth rate than currently projected.