Trendfocus Previews 112 Million to 114 Million HDDs Shipped in 4Q16

In its SDAS: HDD Information Service, Preliminary CQ4 ’16 Quarterly Update published on January 9, 2017, analyst company Trendfocus, Inc. wrote:

Preliminary CQ4 ’16 Results: HDD Shipments of 112-114 Million Units
With strong PC/retail demand offsetting seasonal gaming declines

3.5-Inch Desktop/CE HDDs
Total desktop/CE HDD shipments (including 3.5-inch external HDDs) shipments improved with typical end-of-year desktop PC and external HDD shipment increases. As a result, total desktop/CE HDDs rose around two million units from the prior quarter to end at 38 million HDDs shipped.

2.5-Inch Mobile/CE HDDs
Slight improvements in consumer PC demand, slowing of SSD attach rate growth due to higher SSD pricing, and seasonally higher 2.5-inch external HDD shipments combined to nearly offset the sharp seasonal decline of gaming HDD sales in CQ4 ’16. As a result, total 2.5-inch mobile/CE HDD shipments slipped sequentially by around two to three million units to a range of 57 million to 58 million units.

3.5-Inch/2.5-Inch Enterprise HDDs
After stabilizing in recent quarters, traditional performance enterprise HDDs rose by approximately 500,000 units Q-Q, signaling typical seasonality, even as the total volumes were down from historical norms. Nearline HDDs softened from record highs in the previous quarters, weighed slightly by the shift to higher capacity models – exabytes shipped rose as a result. Total enterprise HDD shipments ranged from around 17 to nearly 18 million, essentially holding flat Q/Q.

4CQ16 preliminary WW HDD shipments

Manufacturer	HDDs shipped in million	Q/Q growth	Y/Y growth	Market share
Seagate	39.00 – 39.50	0.1% / 1.4%	-15.1% / -14.0%	34.8% – 34.8%
Toshiba	26.00 – 26.50	-3.9% / -2.1%	35.9% / 38.5%	23.2% – 23.3%
WDC	47.00 – 47.50	-1.1 / 0.0%	-5.4% / -4.4%	42.0% – 41.9%
TOTAL	112.00 – 113.50	-1.4% / 0.0%	-2.4% / -1.1%	100% – 100%